2006/04/04 - Number 7 (REALLY LONG CATCHUP)

+$148

So it's been a while since I posted and its probably because I had been a bit pissed off at what I felt had been some mistakes I have made and some more bad beats (or at least what I thought were bad beats).

Before I begin this is for any other poker bloggers out there.

http://www.pokersavvy.com/blogtour.html

So since my last post on 18/3/06, here are my results.

21/3/06 Had a JVC product launch that was held in the Grand Ballroom across from the casino. Fantastic meal, boring presentation and $200 thrown away in quick time.

-$52

I was annoyed at how I played on Tuesday night and swore I would make amends on 22/3/06. I was about $300 up and started getting cocky. I chased time and again, but when my straight hit I didnt respect the flush or full house possibilities and got nailed time and again. I ended up going all in on pocket 7s and knew I was up until the guy hit a 6 on the river to add to the 6 on the flop and the one in his hand. Result Minus $200.

-$252

I didn't play Sat 25/3/06 as my mates Buck's night took precedence - nothing to report here unfortunately...just drinks at a pub.

I was very disappointed in my recent losses and decided I had better come up with some rules so that maybe I can minimize losses and maximise winnings.

I remembered a documentary I saw about a guy who gambled as his main income - he played many casino games specialising in craps but I remembered his plan and although I questioned it at the time it suddenly made perfect sense to me.

So basically this is what he said. Every day he went to the casino with $1000. That was his bankroll for the day. He would make a decision that if he lost say $300 in the first hour or say went below $500 he would leave and go home. He would take that as a daily loss. The point he made was valid - YOU CAN'T win everytime or everyday you play. You have to accept that there will be winning days AND losing days. The idea is that if 3 days in a row he loses $300 he is $900 down but if on day four he wins $2000 he is $1100 up over 4 days - THAT is a reasonable income...

The key is to recognise a losing day and get out with as little a loss as possible. It's true that the greatest people in sport, work etc actually fail or underperform a good deal of the time. The most important thing to do is to win plenty on the good days and to lose as little as possible on the bad days.

With this in mind I have decided to have a little system and this is how it goes.

I buy in for $300. If I lose $150 I get up and leave and take the minus $150. If I get say $200 up, I set aside my initial stake plus $100 and then only play with what I have above that. This way if I take a bad beat or two (which would likely put me on tilt) I walk away $100 to the good.

I felt good about my new system and was keen to try it out on Wed 30/3/06.

I arrived full of vim and vigor only to be told at the door I could not enter.

"Why", I enquired?
"You can't enter with those pants", the large doorman.

I had put on some VERY NEAT and dull coloured track pants as the casino aircon is FREEZING at the tables. I have seen MANY people wearing similar and worse. Anyway he says I cannot enter as they are "Active Sportswear" which is not allowed.

Active sportswear I ask incredulous. What are those runners that guy is wearing? They are neat enclosed shoes and are OK.

Alright, so the rule is "ACTIVE" Sportswear. "Tell me ONE sport in the whole world where you actually WEAR track pants????" I ask him with pride and the glint of a winner who has just asked the worlds most perfect conundrum.

"You can't wear them in here" is his response. Bitching about the long trip I had made and that I had worn them before made no difference. I forced him to call out the manager knowing it would do no good but seeing as my day was ruined I may as well get them jumping through hoops. So boss (even bigger) comes out and just says "You can't come in like that" over and over.

As I trudge off I think "do I drive all the way home (30 mins) or do I try to find some suitable attire?" I have been wanting some light canvas/cotton slacks for a while and reason if the local shopping centre can provide these at a reasonable price it will make this trip worthwhile and get me in there!

The short story is I didnt find what I was looking for BUT I did find some cool denim long shorts for $28 (and remembered I also needed a new pair of those) so I bought them and headed back.

I flipped the same doorman the bird as I entered, safe in the knowledge that as the security at the casino had been on the news in recent nights being accused of heavy handedness they would not touch me - and luckily I was right.

I had decided to play 4 today as it is my wifes fave number and I wanted to say to her "look what I won and it was because of your 4!".

Second hand I got was 9 4 offsuit. I threw it and only remembered when the flop came 3 4 4 what I should have done. I played tight aggressive and was about $150 up after 2 hours. By now it was getting close to the time I had to go pick up my girls from daycare/school so I set aside my initial $250 buyin plus $100 in winnings and decided to play the last $50. I finally got a reasonable hand and put in my blind and the first raise but realised it was going nowhere and folded and thought +$112 was ok for about 3 hours grinding. (I reason if I look at it like work about $20 an hour tax free is acceptable - ideally I would like to make at least $50 an hour, but I had my system and I was gonna stick to it).

I got up and on the way to cash out walked past the roulette. I saw that 11 (MY number) was about to disappear of the board (that shows the most recent numbers). Then I saw 28 came up (my birthday) Then I remembered I said I was going to play number 4. I placed a $2 chip on number 4 and was told the minimum was $2.50. This had changed some months ago but since poker I never lay random luck games like roulette so had no idea.

Long story short - 4 came up and I pocketed another $88 - YAY me!!

-$55

So Sat April 1st (yes April Fools) arrives and I plan to use my new strategies and odds I have been learning at our regular $50 tourney.

I am playing well until I had A 9 suited and everyone was limping/folding. Blinds were $50/$100

I raised to $300 I think one caller only (chip leader). Flop comes A 10 6.I bet $300 to end it. He calls. Turn is 6. I check knowing he will bet the 6 if he has it and he checks.

Maybe I should have bet here, but the way he checks I KNOW he doesnt have the sixes.

The river is a J and I look at what he may have had. I again discount trip 6. I am positive he didnt have pockets of ANY kind.

The only thing he could have is A plus second pair, A plus high kicker or the most unlikely K Q for a straight. He asks if I have an ace and I say I do (I AM honest afterall) I decide to check and hope he bets... He thinks and puts me all in for my $3500.

I agonise and "knowing" he didnt have A or 6, and he COULDN'T have K Q I call his "bluff"

He had K Q.....

In our tournaments I am constantly accused of playing tight or weak but EVERY time I call or raise I am inevitably rivered after leading all the way...... I have lost ALL my "all ins" for last 4 weeks after being up all the way and being rivered.

I was so annoyed about this until I read this article :

When you watch poker on TV, do you ever see some plays that seem incomprehensible? Recently, a student sent me such a hand from the World Poker Open in Tunica, Mississippi, and asked, “What’s going on here?”

Here is the hand, played between Gary Gibbs, a tournament regular with lifetime tournament winnings of more than $300,000, and Gavin Smith, who has been on a tear recently and has lifetime tournament winnings of more than $2 million. With 11 players left (all in the money), there was a fivehanded and a sixhanded table. The blinds were $8,000-$16,000 with $2,000 antes. Thus, at the fivehanded table, the total pot before the deal was $34,000. Gibbs was one off the button with a deep stack of just over $1 million. Smith was on the button and had Gary covered.

Gibbs raised to $48,000 and Smith called. The flop came K Q 5, Gibbs bet $65,000, and Smith called. The turn card was the 7, Gibbs bet $150,000, and Smith called. The river card was the 9, Gibbs checked, Smith bet $400,000, and Gibbs moved all in for about $650,000. Smith called, showing the 10 8 for a flush, and Gibbs showed the 8 6 for a straight. Smith won the biggest pot of the tournament to that point, and Gibbs was eliminated tied for 10th place, and took home $34,600.

OK, what really was happening here? What were these two guys doing betting and calling with nothing at all? I have no way to know what was going on in their heads, and I am looking at this hand out of context, but I will take a shot at it. I apologize in advance to Gary and Gavin if I am misrepresenting their thoughts. I also am not going to tell you that their actions were good or bad. These are the actions they made at the table, and I am going to try to reason why they made them. Here is my analysis of their thinking:

Gibbs: I am one off the button. Everyone is playing pretty tight, trying to make the final table, so I will raise here to steal the blinds and antes. After all, someone has to. A standard raise to $48,000, three times the big blind, has been working at this table, so I will try it.

Smith: Gibbs raised, but he would do that with almost anything, trying to steal. I don’t want to reraise and risk a bunch of chips in case one of the blinds wakes up with a real hand and comes over the top, making me fold. I have a pretty good hand to call here, as it can make some unexpected big hands. With my position, I should be able to take this pot away from Gibbs. Plus, I may flop a miracle.

(The flop comes K Q 5; the pot holds $134,000.)

Gibbs: I missed the flop, but I have only one opponent, and he probably missed, too. I must make a standard continuation bet here of half the pot. He will probably give up if he missed, or even if he has middle pair. If he calls or raises, I will just give up on the hand.

Smith: I missed, and he is betting. Of course, he will pretty much always bet with one opponent after he has raised. I will risk a call here and see what he does on the turn. If he missed the flop, he will probably check and fold on the turn, as my call will look scary to him. I estimate I will have a 50 percent chance of stealing this pot, and I am getting 2-to-1 for my call.

(The turn is the 7; the pot holds $264,000.)

Gibbs: Smith’s call was scary, but I just picked up an open-end straight draw, and I have eight outs to make a real hand and possibly double through. Plus, if I bet, he will think I’m strong and will fold many hands with which he would call on the flop to see if I really have strength. Had I missed the turn completely, I would have given up, but this draw now enables me to fire a second barrel. I need to show some strength here, and I should bet more than half the pot to convince Smith that I have the goods. A bet of 60 percent of the pot, $150,000, should do it.

Smith: Well, he bet again, so he really must have something. However, I just picked up a well-hidden flush draw. His bet of $150,000 is pretty big, but if I hit my flush, there is a good chance he will give me his remaining $650,000 in addition to the $414,000 that’s already in the pot. So, I am really calling $150,000 in an attempt to win more than a million. With a 20 percent chance to hit, that moves the odds in my favor. I know I am drawing, but my flush will be well-hidden. Since his turn bet shows strength, he probably will pay me off.

(The river is the 9; the pot is $564,000.)

Gibbs: Holy cow! I made my straight. He will never believe it. Now, how do I get a lot of money from him? I can just push all in, but that probably will scare him off top pair, and I want a big reward for my miracle catch. If I bet a little, I probably will get called, but I want a bigger payoff. I will check! He has called thus far, so he must have a pretty good hand. He will bet most of his hands to get paid off, and perhaps will put in enough to get pot-committed, so when I check-raise, he will have to make a crying call. I may double through here. Plus, even if he has a weak hand, he may bet something on a desperation bluff, and I will get something from him instead of nothing if I bet. All in all, I will try the check.

Smith: Holy cow! I made my flush. He will never believe it. Now, how do I get a lot of money from him? I know he has a good hand because he bet the turn, but his check probably means he does not have a huge hand and does not want to face a fancy raise by me. I need to bet something here that will get paid off. I don’t want to put him all in, as he probably will fold, and I won’t get anything. The pot is $564,000. If I bet around two-thirds of it, he can make a crying call and still have $250,000 left, which he just might do rather than see the whole pot go to me. Maybe I should bet a little less, but I think he might pay me off at $400,000, so I will bet that.

Gibbs: I did it. He bet. And he did bet enough so that he’ll have to pay me off. I will just push all in here and he will have to call the rest. Final table, here I come — with a big stack.

Smith: What is this? A check-raise? Did he make a bigger flush? Could he have the Q J? I hope not, but it doesn’t matter. I have a real hand, and I am totally pot-committed. I will call and just hope he was trapping with something I can beat.

That is my take on Gibbs’ and Smith’s thinking. Certainly, these players could have made different decisions at every point, and may make different ones tomorrow based on their table image, their view of how well their opponents play, the stack sizes of the other players, especially the blinds, tells they may have had on each other or the field, their goals in the tournament, and many other factors.

Announcers on TV do not have time to go into hands (especially poker math) in any depth, so their analysis is necessarily somewhat superficial. Perhaps my analysis, if close to correct, gave you a feel for what these players are thinking as they approach and play at the final table of a major event.

So anyway to finish off last Saturday, I also lose another $35 in what we call the losers game afterwards.
-$140

So 5/4/06 my little girl fakes sickness and my wife jumps at the chance to say I have to stay home and look after her and therefore not go to the casino.

She gets her wish, but by the time she gets home from the gym at 8.45pm I am itching to get a game and after an earlier argument I am not hearing her objections. I am heading to the casino to show her!

I get to the casino at 9.30pm where I play the $10/$10/$20/$20 structured game. Second hand I get pocket 7s. I raise and hope. Some callers and flop is 554. Checked to me and I bet. Some callers and turn is 6. With top pair and an open ended straight I bet. All fold but 1 guy raises and I call. River is x and my 77 55 beats his 66 55.

I play tight aggressive and am up about $500 in less than 2 hours. Finally the cards fall like they should and my hands hold up! I am counting out my chips to cash in when the dealer deals again. I am worried that I may see a hand that forces me to play and lose my "hard earned" winnings. I consider chucking them without looking but I am too curious so I look.

9 5 spades. If it was 9 4 or 10 5 I would have thrown but the flush AND straight possibility make me call. The flop hits 8 10 A spades - I have flopped the flush! I decide I will bet/raise all the way and hope for no 4th spade.

It doesnt come and I add another $200 odd dollars to my kitty and before they can push the chips over I say "KEEP IT AND CASH ME OUT!" + $768

+$628